Retirement Success Probability Calculator
Estimate the probability that your retirement portfolio survives for the full duration based on withdrawal rate and historical data.
Calculation Inputs
Calculation Results
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Enter inputs on the left and click Calculate to view results.
Formula & Methodology
Based on Trinity Study historical success rates for balanced portfolios
The Trinity Study shows historical success rates for various withdrawal rates over 30-year periods using balanced stock/bond portfolios.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the safest withdrawal rate?
3% has historically never failed for 30 years. 4% has 95%+ success for 30 years. 5% drops to ~82%.